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  • 26th January 2016 - Could the Euro be on the brink of reversal?
    inflation miss was a primary reason but a broader down grading of medium and longer term price expectations also factored The situation seems to have got so bad that now even governing council hawks are disposed to considering more monetary easing It already costs bank s money if they want to deposit their cash with the ECB an unusually inverted state of affairs given it is normally the other way around However most analysts speculating on what could pass at the ECB s March meeting suggest an even deeper reduction in the deposit rate of 10 basis points from 0 30 to 0 40 may be the most likely outcome Bank of America was one of the first to comment and suggest the 10 basis point cut scenario as most likely with a possible further extension of the monthly asset purchase programme thrown in GBP EUR 1 3057 GBP USD 1 4175 GBP CHF 1 4362 GBP JPY 167 22 GBP AUD 2 0418 GBP NZD 2 2015 GBP CAD 2 0285 GBP ZAR 23 512 GBP NOK 12 510 GBP SEK 12 151 EUR USD 1 0845 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/450-26th-january-2016-could-the-euro-be-on-the-brink-of-reversal?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 25th January 2016 - Global warnings and uncertainty for the year ahead
    on the risks posed by a potential Brexit and the referendum it is likely to be mentioned by Mark Carney on Tuesday when he speaks about financial stability risks The Brexit will undoubtedly become a recurring theme throughout 2016 and economists sited it as the single biggest risk to the UK economy for this year Oil price volatility is set to continue this week according to analysts The price of oil had its biggest two day rally for over seven years at the end of last week but most are still slashing their forecasts Analysts are warning how investors are being slow to re invest in the Asian markets and there is a real risk that the low sentiment could end in a self fulfilling prophecy as confidence wanes in the Chinese Government to stem the outward flow GBP EUR 1 3164 GBP USD 1 4255 GBP CHF 1 4452 GBP JPY 168 67 GBP AUD 2 0443 GBP NZD 2 1993 GBP CAD 2 0248 GBP ZAR 23 5572 GBP NOK 12 5022 GBP SEK 12 2177 EUR USD 1 0823 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 05 00 JPY Leading Economic

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/449-25th-january-2016-global-warnings-and-uncertainty-for-the-year-ahead?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 22nd January 2016 - ECB open to easing
    they are some way off of their 2 target Draghi and his colleagues have suggested increased quantitative easing to stimulate a push up to the target inflation rate you can expect to see this happen in Spring as the risk in the global economy and turbulent start to the year in financial markets mean it s too early to boost In the UK retail sales for December are released at 09 30 this morning and David Cameron has spoken yesterday about a potential delay in the EU referendum until 2017 The Prime Minister aims to have his reform demands agreed at an EU summit in February but if he comes away unsatisfied he has said that he will be in no rush for a referendum The Dollar has gained momentum against the Pound through the chance of a 2016 referendum so if it is delayed we may see GBP USD regain some ground GBP EUR 1 3130 GBP USD 1 4226 GBP CHF 1 4371 GBP JPY 168 02 GBP AUD 2 0280 GBP NZD 2 1800 GBP CAD 2 2027 GBP ZAR 23 4817 GBP NOK 12 5015 GBP SEK 12 1981 EUR USD 1 0828 All rates are

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/448-22nd-january-2016-ecb-open-to-easing?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 21st January 2016 - Markets poised for ECB policy clues
    trade in Europe and around the world accelerates We can expect further volatility in the run up to this afternoon s event US Unemployment Claims data will also be released at 4pm which is a major consideration for the Federal Open Market Committee so this has the potential to provoke some movement in the value of the US Dollar The credibility of the Bank of England has been questioned recently as some accuse them of being asleep at the wheel as the UK shows significant signs of slowing global markets are looking dismal and inflation has not increased in line with targets BoE Governor Mark Carney stated in his speech earlier this week that It is clear to me that since last summer progress has been insufficient to warrant a tightening of monetary policy Markets are no longer expecting a UK rate hike until 2017 and are rapidly losing faith in Carney s plans and forecasts GBP EUR 1 2991 GBP USD 1 4155 GBP CHF 1 4205 GBP JPY 165 59 GBP AUD 2 0510 GBP NZD 2 2030 GBP CAD 2 0495 GBP ZAR 23 7820 GBP NOK 12 6090 GBP SEK 12 1435 EUR USD 1 0890

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/447-21st-january-2016-markets-poised-for-ecb-policy-clues?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 20th January 2016 - Carney flattens the Pound
    a bullish move higher only hours earlier thanks to an improving FTSE 100 and news that UK inflation had picked up in December The decline lies with the all important expectations on interest rates at the Bank of England Markets have long been buying the Pound in anticipation of an impending interest rate rise higher interest rates higher yield more money flowing into the country to take advantage on the return that those yields offer Markets had expected a rate rise in early 2016 which was then moved back to late 2016 and the Pound suffered heavily Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has just stepped up and kicked it into 2017 and now the Pound is on sale as a result GBP EUR 1 2905 GBP USD 1 4137 GBP CHF 1 4162 GBP JPY 164 32 GBP AUD 2 0642 GBP NZD 2 2235 GBP CAD 2 0755 GBP ZAR 23 853 GBP NOK 12 485 GBP SEK 12 062 EUR USD 1 0962 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 CHF ZEW Survey Expectations Jan 16 6 13 30 USD Consumer Price Index YoY Dec 0 8

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/446-20th-january-2016-carney-flattens-the-pound?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 19th January 2016 - China growth at 25 year lows
    concern would be a sharper decline in growth Signs of a slower decline hint that China will have a soft landing and be resilient leading to fears of entering a global crunch not as high as they were around six weeks ago Although growth has slowed significantly some are now arguing that we mustn t forget that most economies would be very proud of a 6 9 annual GDP growth That said it is also true that the last time we saw this kind of slow down we entered a global recession The price of oil broke 28 per barrel yesterday as Iran s oil became available to the global markets adding yet more supply to an already over supplied market Opec forecast yesterday that the higher cost producers such as the US and Russia would begin to scale back their production in 2016 GBP EUR 1 3145 GBP USD 1 4310 GBP CHF 1 4405 GBP JPY 168 55 GBP AUD 2 0725 GBP NZD 2 2150 GBP CAD 2 0710 GBP ZAR 23 78 GBP NOK 12 6545 GBP SEK 12 2450 EUR USD 1 0880 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/445-copy-of-19th-january-2016-china-growth-at-25-year-lows?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 18th January 2016 - US Inflation and Brexit Concerns
    sterling dollar would be a weaker than expected US inflation read which is due on Wednesday Higher than expected inflation would mean the US Federal Reserve would have to potentially raise interest rates more aggressively in 2016 a scenario that is bullish for the US dollar The Bank of England s MPC have warned that subsequent rises in interest rates are set to be slow and gradual The recent mood music of the MPC has been firmly dovish For example having signalled in 2015 Carney expected to be considering raising interest rates around the turn of this year He then told the Financial Times in an interview that the timetable is likely to slip because cost pressures have increased more slowly than anticipated GBP EUR 1 3162 GBP USD 1 4307 GBP CHF 1 4402 GBP JPY 167 92 GBP AUD 2 0752 GBP NZD 2 2132 GBP CAD 2 0761 GBP ZAR 23 942 GBP NOK 12 713 GBP SEK 12 282 EUR USD 1 0876 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 04 30 JPY Industrial Production YoY Nov 1 6 09 00 EUR Global Trade Balance Nov 3 24B 4 812B

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/444-18th-january-2016-us-inflation-and-brexit-concerns?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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  • 15th January 2016 - BoE fears faltering inflation
    around 30 a barrel which would keep inflation low for longer It was a year today since the Swiss national bank shocked markets by abandoning the floor it had set for the previous three and a half years on the Franc s value against the Euro which saw the Franc rise as much as 41 percent against the Euro Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan sees growth accelerating to about 1 5 percent this year from just 1 percent in 2015 However the SNB president says the Franc is still overvalued The key bit of data we have coming out today is the US retail sales figures This provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month The retail sales in the United States increased by 0 2 in November from October 2015 This was the biggest gain in four months GBP EUR 1 3152 GBP USD 1 4338 GBP CHF 1 4396 GBP JPY 168 30 GBP AUD 2 0809 GBP NZD 2 2391 GBP CAD 2 0801 GBP ZAR 23 7738 GBP NOK 12 6665 GBP SEK 12 2902 EUR USD 1 0884 All rates are indicative of interbank rates

    Original URL path: http://www.centralfx.co.uk/component/k2/item/443-15th-january-2016-boe-fears-faltering-inflation?tmpl=component&print=1 (2016-04-25)
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