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  • Super User
    jobs in Britain and generate 31bn a year and the consensus is that an in vote gives the UK an ability to influence and shape EU regulations More than 50 of our exports go to EU countries and our membership allows us to have a say over how trading rules are drawn up Total non farm payroll employment in the US increased by 215 000 in March of 2016 Lower than an upwardly revised 245 000 in the previous month and beating market expectations of 205 000 Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly usually on the first Friday of every month and heavily affects the US dollar the bond market and the stock market GBP USD currently stands at 1 4198 We have an interesting week of data coming out which we can expect to drive another very volatile market This includes FOMC Meeting minutes in the US an ECB President Draghi speech in the EU and a Fed chair Janet Yellen speech also in the US GBP EUR 1 2490 GBP USD 1 4198 GBP CHF 1 3636 GBP JPY 158 64 GBP AUD 1 8669 GBP NZD 2 0701 GBP CAD 1 8573 GBP ZAR 21 0124 GBP NOK 11 8370 GBP SEK 11 5610 EUR USD 1 1373 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD DAY 1 G20 G20 Meetings 14 00 USD Factory orders m m 1 5 1 6 14 00 USD Labor market conditions index m m 2 5 23 30 AUD AIG services index 51 8 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 1st April 2016 Account Deficit Worst Since WWII 31 March 2016 Super User News 0 comment Account Deficit Worst Since WWII Currency markets remained subdued on Thursday ahead of the highly anticipated US jobs figure to be released on Friday With little economic data available to sway market sentiment pundits remained cautious The Euro managed to maintain its recent buoyancy edging toward a four month high against the Dollar whilst trading near fifteen month highs against the Sterling Pound In local news the UK could be faced with a balance of payments crisis as the current account deficit widened to its highest level since the second world war in the fourth quarter of 2015 With current account measuring the difference between incoming and outgoing flow of money jumped to a deficit 32 7 billion equivalent of the seven per cent of the nation s GDP Several economists have attributed the trade gap to be a result of Britain s exposure to a fragile global economy and the ongoing threat of the EU referendum Looking ahead the US non farm payrolls numbers will be published on Friday with estimates that the job sector increased by 210 000 new jobs in the month of March slightly down from the highs of 245 00 new jobs seen in the month of February Signals for the labour market have been mixed lately Jobless claims data continue to look solid with initial claims back at cycle lows GBP EUR 1 2600 GBP USD 1 4350 GBP CHF 1 3780 GBP JPY 161 00 GBP AUD 1 8680 GBP NZD 2 0740 GBP CAD 1 8670 GBP ZAR 21 1150 GBP NOK 11 8550 GBP SEK 11 6550 EUR USD 1 1380 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 09 30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Mar 51 2 50 8 10 00 EUR Unemployment Rate Feb 10 3 10 3 13 30 USD Unemployment Rate Mar 4 9 4 9 13 30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 205K 242K All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 30th March 2016 Too much Yellin sinks the Dollar 30 March 2016 Super User News 0 comment Too much Yellin sinks the Dollar Yesterday Janet Yellen sparked a sharp Dollar sell off as the subject of interest rate hikes and how many there will be in 2016 was brought to the table at a New York press conference held by the Fed Chair Yellen went on to say that there was a caution around raising interest rates and they should be Especially Warranted The worry from the Fed raised concerns about the timing of these hikes and the damage that could be accrued by raising interest rates too early into the cycle Yellen mentioned that she would like to see improvements in projected data in the economy before any more hikes were introduced which has led the sharp Dollar sell off as speculation has now arisen about the amount and timing of the hikes Most economists now believe that the US will only introduce one hike this year in the third quarter For Sterling there is only one story at present and that is the EU referendum The uncertainty posed by a UK exit is a strange one to gauge by currency markets and currency markets hate uncertainty Nevertheless the relative stability seen over March in the GBP to EUR exchange is starting to give weight to the argument that the In vote will be the flavour of the day come June GBP EUR 1 2746 GBP USD 1 4435 GBP CHF 1 3916 GBP JPY 162 05 GBP AUD 1 8815 GBP NZD 2 0822 GBP CAD 1 8806 GBP ZAR 21 652

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  • Super User
    suggestions that due to the current levels of inflation and employment there is justification for the Federal Open Market Committee to continue hiking their interest rates over the course of the year ahead Although this is unlikely in March April because they re likely to remain cautious over the implications of the global developments on the US economy The next FOMC meeting will occur on Wednesday and it seems that the Dollar has posted a recovery across the board with Sterling and the Euro declining against the Greenback The main risks today which have potential to excel these swings will be the retail sales and PPI figures at 12 30pm In addition Sterling has weakened drastically over the past few hours for no blatant reason other than the unwinding of positions in the run up to Thursday s Bank of England commentary clients may wish to evaluate their positions and requirements in the meantime GBP EUR 1 2770 GBP USD 1 4170 GBP CHF 1 4046 GBP JPY 161 06 GBP AUD 1 9085 GBP NZD 2 1457 GBP CAD 1 9022 GBP ZAR 22 3467 GBP NOK 12 1304 GBP SEK 11 8890 EUR USD 1 1105 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 12 30 USD Core Retail Sales m m 0 2 0 1 12 30 USD PPI m m 0 2 0 1 12 30 USD Retail Sales m m 0 2 0 1 Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 1 4 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 14th March 2016 After a volatile week more volatility expected 14 March 2016 Super User News 0 comment After a volatile week more volatility expected With three central banks set to decide on interest rates and monetary policy this week promises to be at least as volatile as the last The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England are both widely expected to hold rates and policy with Japan s expected to provide some extra liquidity any surprises will result in heightened volatility George Osborne will be announcing his budget reforms on Wednesday He is expected to target the insurance and banking industries to raise more capital Osborne said of the budget over the weekend that my message in this budget is that the world is a more uncertain place than at any time since the financial crisis We need to act now so we don t pay later This is advice that could and should be heeded when considering one s foreign exchange given the significant economic events of the coming months London s economic growth plunged to a three year low according to the regional purchasing managers index compiled by Lloyds Bank Although scoring 52 2 which is above 50 and so still represents growth it is down from 56 4 in January In fact London wasn t alone and the only region of the UK not to follow this trend was the North East dragging the UK score to a 34 month low GBP EUR 1 2915 GBP USD 1 4361 GBP CHF 1 4172 GBP JPY 163 35 GBP AUD 1 9088 GBP NZD 2 1371 GBP CAD 1 9067 GBP ZAR 22 041 GBP NOK 12 1422 GBP SEK 12 001 EUR USD 1 1121 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 EUR Industrial Production w d a YoY Jan 0 9 1 3 10 00 EUR Industrial Production s a MoM Jan 1 5 1 0 03 00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0 1 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 11th March 2016 Record move in Euro 11 March 2016 Super User News 0 comment Record move in Euro The European Central Bank has moved aggressively to stimulate the Eurozone s economy announcing a package of measures including cheap loans for banks an expanded quantitative easing QE programme and interest rate cuts Off the back of this Euro plummeted 1 6 percent before rising three percent against the Dollar one of the biggest movements in the single currency s 17 year history Draghi went on to say from today s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation we don t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further The Central Bank cut its deposit rate to minus 0 4 per cent and expanded its quantitative easing programme by 80bn a month which will run beyond the end of March 2017 Draghi also warned that despite the measures inflation in the Eurozone will stay negative for several months but the bank is not short of ammunition to bring it back up to target The FX calendar is relatively quiet today with the only potential market movers coming out at 13 30pm the Canadian employment change and unemployment rate are both forecast to be either in line with or better than the previous month However if there are any surprises this could create volatility GBP EUR 1 2814 GBP USD 1 4270 GBP CHF 1 4074 GBP JPY 162 28 GBP AUD 1 9047 GBP NZD 2 1369 GBP CAD 1 8910 GBP ZAR 21 8178 GBP NOK 12 1450 GBP SEK 11 9411 EUR USD 1 1135 All rates are indicative of interbank rates

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  • Super User
    between now and the vote on 23 June But a vote to leave could push the pairing to parity With an already pressurised pound due to reversal on sentiment with interest rates a low inflation reading and a slowing economy in general a vote to leave the EU could be seen as a huge short term negative and could potentially turn into a land slide movement against the pound The baseline forecast for 1 37 at the end of 2016 relies on the observation that UK economic data remains firm and an assumption that the Bank of England will likely bring forward an interest rate rise in the event of the UK staying in Europe If the general public of the United Kingdom vote to stay in the EU then it seems likely that the market would start to anticipate Bank of England rate rises once more and that sterling would strengthen to prior levels GBP EUR 1 2832 GBP USD 1 3951 GBP CHF 1 3945 GBP JPY 157 62 GBP AUD 1 9443 GBP NZD 2 1073 GBP CAD 1 8845 GBP ZAR 21 932 GBP NOK 12 063 GBP SEK 11 991 EUR USD 1 0871 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 08 15 CHF Real Retail Sales YoY Feb 1 2 1 7 08 55 EUR Unemployment Rate s a Feb 6 2 6 2 15 00 USD ISM Prices Paid Feb 34 5 33 5 15 00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb 48 5 48 2 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 29th February 2016 Considering a Brexit 29 February 2016 Super User News 0 comment Considering a Brexit As the EU referendum approaches the debate is beginning to heat up and so is the uncertainty for the UK and the Pound Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has suggested that the Euro Zone should be broken up and the Euro scrapped He argued that the long term benefits outweigh the short term costs Accountancy group Moore Stephens has polled nearly 500 owner managed small businesses in the UK and found that six in ten want to stay in the EU with just 17 backing a Brexit The first official Government analysis into the effects of a Brexit on the UK warn of a decade of uncertainty leading to volatile financial markets lower investment and a weaker Pound They went on to mention that the process of a full Brexit would take far longer than the two years stipulated and would take more like ten complex and grinding years to renegotiate trade deals worldwide These claims have been rubbished by Out Campaigners who argue that the Government are fear mongering and liken the claims to those made when Britain considered joining the Euro Ruth Miller from Capital Economics has gone on record to state that she believes that the Pound will head further towards a three decade low this week She blames fears over the referendum and concerns over this week s Purchasing Managing Index showing further economic slowdown GBP EUR 1 2695 GBP USD 1 3871 GBP CHF 1 3849 GBP JPY 156 75 GBP AUD 1 9413 GBP NZD 2 0972 GBP CAD 1 8779 GBP ZAR 22 356 GBP NOK 12 0675 GBP SEK 11 8132 EUR USD 1 0917 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 EUR Consumer Price Index YoY Feb Preliminar 0 0 0 3 10 00 EUR Consumer Price Index Core YoY Feb Preliminar 0 9 1 0 15 00 USD Pending Home Sales YoY Jan 4 2 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 26th February 2016 Pound under pressure 26 February 2016 Super User News 0 comment Pound under pressure The G20 meetings began today in Shanghai attended by finance ministers and central bankers from 20 industrialised nations including the G7 Canada France Japan Germany Italy the UK and the USA The group is an influential global policy making body with a mutual aim to improve governments ability to stimulate growth and their decisions can impact on the currency markets The Rand has recovered this morning as risk appetite returned the currency gained back some of the 3 percent lost on Wednesday when traders attempted to decipher South African Finance Minister Gordhan s budget speech The UK currency stabilised against the Euro and gained some ground against the Dollar on Thursday as the Brexit sell off slowed This does not mean that downside risk has been abolished Sterling is still under a great deal of pressure We have a busy calendar today with several key fundamental figures released throughout the afternoon but in particular clients should be aware of the US Q4 GDP data at 1 30pm which is expected to be revised further down to an annualized 0 4 Q Q from 0 7 Q Q GBP EUR 1 2693 GBP USD 1 3985 GBP CHF 1 3855 GBP JPY 157 85 GBP AUD 1 9373 GBP NZD 2 0718 GBP CAD 1 8923 GBP ZAR 21 7700 GBP NOK 12 0619 GBP SEK 11 8810 EUR USD 1 1022 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD DAY 1 G20 G20 Meetings 13 30 USD Prelim GDP q

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  • Super User
    ranks said that a recent fallback in wage growth in Britain suggests there is no longer an urgent need to raise rates Between August and January Mr McCafferty was the lone voice for higher borrowing costs on the nine member panel but he abandoned that call in February His words came amid severe financial market turbulence and a global economic slowdown that is testing central banks world wide The European Central Bank the Bank of Japan and others have been easing policy aggressively in an effort to stoke faster growth in their economies and spur inflation The Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates in the U S in December but officials have since signaled they may reassess their plans for future rate increases if economic growth and job gains disappoint In the U K central bank officials led by governor Mark Carney have in recent months tiptoed away from expected interest rate increases citing unexpectedly weak inflation and a darkening global outlook Annual inflation in the U K was just 0 2 in December and has been close to zero for roughly a year well short of the BOE s 2 target GBP EUR 1 2975 GBP USD 1 4482 GBP CHF 1 4308 GBP JPY 165 75 GBP AUD 2 0191 GBP NZD 2 1956 GBP CAD 1 9921 GBP ZAR 22 856 GBP NOK 12 492 GBP SEK 12 284 EUR USD 1 1152 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 09 00 GBP Producer price index Output YoY 0 9 1 2 09 00 GBP Consumer Price Index YoY Jan 0 3 0 2 15 00 GBP NAHB Housing Market Index Feb 60 60 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 15th February 2016 Abenomics and Carney chaos 15 February 2016 Super User News 0 comment Abenomics and Carney chaos The futures markets and many analysts disagree on whether the Bank of England s next interest rate adjustment will be up or down with the futures market pricing in a move to negative territory and analysts only giving that a 10 chance Investors wary of a global slow down seem to be preparing for a worst case scenario and many commentators are arguing that the Bank of England s lack of transparency on targets and monetary policy is adding fuel to the fire With a tranche of UK data out this week figures will be scrutinised heavily HSBC have committed the future location of their headquarters to London despite the results of the EU referendum In another large blow to the out campaign HSBC s board of directors unanimously voted to remain in London following an exhaustive review Following Japan s move to cut interest rates into negative territory for the first time ever analysts are beginning to question whether Abenomics is working The world s third largest economy lost 8 value from its stock market in two days last week erasing most of the gains over the previous two years Also recent GDP figures show that the economy is shrinking once again Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Governor Kuroda seem to be running out of options Abenomics driven by a weaker Yen and infrastructure investment is being limited by a now strengthening Yen and a lack of reinvestment from Japan s large corporations GBP EUR 1 2952 GBP USD 1 4492 GBP CHF 1 4258 GBP JPY 165 01 GBP AUD 2 0283 GBP NZD 2 1739 GBP CAD 2 0043 GBP ZAR 22 866 GBP NOK 12 4628 GBP SEK 12 2584 EUR USD 1 1183 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 EUR Trade Balance n s a Dec 23 6B 10 00 EUR Trade Balance s a Dec 22 4B 22 7B 14 00 EUR ECB President Draghi s Speech All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 12th February 2016 50 50 chance of BOE rate cut 12 February 2016 Super User News 0 comment 50 50 chance of BOE rate cut Share prices around the world have dived with heightened fears of a global slowdown and perilous deflationary spiral Contrary to initial expectations clients will have noticed that GBP EUR has continued to drop to yearly lows a contributing factor behind this is that financial markets are now beginning to take into account the possibility of an interest rate cut in the UK later this year following almost seven years at its three century low of 0 5 per cent The Bank of England has previously ruled out a rate cut because of the damage it could do to building societies which rely on being able to attract retail deposits Germany s economy expanded by 0 3 in the final quarter of 2015 official figures show It grew by 1 7 over the course of the year helped by domestic demand This glimmer of light for the Eurozone was somewhat dwarfed by Sweden s Central Bank when they cut the country s main interest rate into negative territory to 0 5 per cent The main focus today is the GDP figures for the EU we have coming out at 10am This is the gross domestic product released by the Eurostat which is a measure of a total value of all goods and services

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  • Super User
    was underlined by negative comments from Federal Reserve s Vice President Stanley Fischer overnight With the Central Bank seen hiking interest rates in December of 2015 much speculation has surrounded the timing of the next rate move by the Central bank of the world s largest economy although Fed s Fischer was quick to trim market optimism His re iteration that the Central Bank s next step in rate moved remained unclear amid global uncertainty adding that it is too difficult to gauge the impact on the U S economy from recent turmoil in financial markets and uncertainty over China The comments give added support to the notion that the Federal reserve will be very patient and gradual in their ambition to normalize rates which have been at historic lows since the height of the Global recession of 2008 GBP EUR 1 3185 GBP USD 1 4361 GBP CHF 1 4635 GBP JPY 173 28 GBP AUD 2 0334 GBP NZD 2 2112 GBP CAD 2 0135 GBP ZAR 23 005 GBP NOK 12 512 GBP SEK 12 273 EUR USD 1 0913 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 08 15 CHF Real Retail Sales YoY Jan 1 3 1 7 10 00 EUR Unemployment Rate Dec 10 5 10 5 21 45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q4 6 1 6 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 1st February 2016 More Global Woes 01 February 2016 Super User News 0 comment More Global Woes Business optimism in the UK has reached a new three year low according to The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales signalling slower growth and raising a threat to George Osborne s budget target next month The Institute went on to say that the level of confidence indicated a growth of 0 4 over the first three months 2016 the lowest since early 2013 China posted more poor figures in the early hours of this morning with the Purchasing Managers Index which measures factory activity at the lowest level for three and a half years This is the sixth consecutive figure showing contraction in the world s second largest economy The Chinese stock market lost a further 3 value in the afternoon session as a result The Greeks will have their reform measures reviewed by their creditors in talks starting today that will likely last a few weeks Greek farmers and self employed marched on Athens and blocked streets in protests over pension cuts Greek creditors the IMF The European Investment Bank and the European Central Bank are insisting that cuts to pensions are implemented as soon as possible as per the terms of the bailout Since 2010 the average Greek pension has been cut by 40 45 and the retirement age has risen to 67 with unemployment remaining at 25 and so the Greeks obviously feel stretched but will be keen to avoid the uncertainty experienced previously GBP EUR 1 3161 GBP USD 1 428 GBP CHF 1 4581 GBP JPY 173 14 GBP AUD 2 0167 GBP NZD 2 2058 GBP CAD 2 0033 GBP ZAR 22 7814 GBP NOK 12 3863 GBP SEK 12 228 EUR USD 1 0844 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 15 00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jan 34 0 33 5 15 00 USD Construction Spending MoM Dec 0 6 0 4 16 00 EUR ECB President Draghi s Speech All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 29th January 2016 Brexit concerns and strong GDP data 29 January 2016 Super User News 0 comment Brexit concerns and strong GDP data We may see the British Pound weaken in the short term as Brexit risks weigh the Bank of England delays rate hike expectations and the U K current account is exposed to the negative global outlook says Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research In a note to clients covering the outlook for Sterling researchers say that the currency will however mount a recovery in as soon as the referendum passes as analysts believe voters will probably vote for the status quo and the U K will remain in the European Union Post referendum Sterling will experience a resurgence as the major black cloud hanging over it evaporates In addition its true fundamentals will shine through which are that it is currently undervalued and that such low rates coupled with low unemployment make an argument for potential inflationary pressures and a bank rate rise Sterling rose strongly after the release of positive GDP data on Thursday prompting questions as to whether this could prove a turning point for the currency The figures showed a positive rise in growth of 0 5 in Q4 which was an acceleration from the 0 4 registered in Q3 nevertheless it was in line with expectations GBP EUR 1 3177 GBP USD 1 4355 GBP CHF 1 4636 GBP JPY 173 50 GBP AUD 2 0192 GBP NZD 2 2053 GBP CAD 2 0117 GBP ZAR 23 1506 GBP NOK 12 3861 GBP SEK 12 2300 EUR USD 1 0888 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 EUR Consumer Price Index YoY Jan 0 4 0 2 10 00 EUR Consumer Price Index Core YoY

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  • Super User
    growth has slowed significantly some are now arguing that we mustn t forget that most economies would be very proud of a 6 9 annual GDP growth That said it is also true that the last time we saw this kind of slow down we entered a global recession The price of oil broke 28 per barrel yesterday as Iran s oil became available to the global markets adding yet more supply to an already over supplied market Opec forecast yesterday that the higher cost producers such as the US and Russia would begin to scale back their production in 2016 GBP EUR 1 3145 GBP USD 1 4310 GBP CHF 1 4405 GBP JPY 168 55 GBP AUD 2 0725 GBP NZD 2 2150 GBP CAD 2 0710 GBP ZAR 23 78 GBP NOK 12 6545 GBP SEK 12 2450 EUR USD 1 0880 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 09 30 GBP CPI 0 1 0 1 09 30 GBP PPI Input 1 4 1 6 10 00 EUR German ZEW 8 2 16 1 10 00 EUR Final CPI 0 2 0 2 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 18th January 2016 US Inflation and Brexit Concerns 18 January 2016 Super User News 0 comment US Inflation and Brexit Concerns Giant lender Credit Suisse have today weighed down their three and 12 month forecasts for the pound by 5 8 and 8 2 respectively versus the dollar and 10 0 and 8 7 respectively against the euro The harsh revised figures have come as a result of increased concerns about the impact of the Brexit following increased likelihood of a referendum in 2016 and the question of how the Pound would react to a likely Brexit The bleeding in the GBPUSD exchange rate continues After five consecutive weeks of decline where and when will the relief rally take place A potential trigger for a turn around in sterling dollar would be a weaker than expected US inflation read which is due on Wednesday Higher than expected inflation would mean the US Federal Reserve would have to potentially raise interest rates more aggressively in 2016 a scenario that is bullish for the US dollar The Bank of England s MPC have warned that subsequent rises in interest rates are set to be slow and gradual The recent mood music of the MPC has been firmly dovish For example having signalled in 2015 Carney expected to be considering raising interest rates around the turn of this year He then told the Financial Times in an interview that the timetable is likely to slip because cost pressures have increased more slowly than anticipated GBP EUR 1 3162 GBP USD 1 4307 GBP CHF 1 4402 GBP JPY 167 92 GBP AUD 2 0752 GBP NZD 2 2132 GBP CAD 2 0761 GBP ZAR 23 942 GBP NOK 12 713 GBP SEK 12 282 EUR USD 1 0876 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 04 30 JPY Industrial Production YoY Nov 1 6 09 00 EUR Global Trade Balance Nov 3 24B 4 812B 21 00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence QoQ Q4 14 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown This message sent to This email address is being protected from spambots You need JavaScript enabled to view it by This email address is being protected from spambots You need JavaScript enabled to view it Central FX America House 2 America Square London LondonEC3N 2LU Unsubscribe Update Profile Email Address Read more 15th January 2016 BoE fears faltering inflation 15 January 2016 Super User News 0 comment BoE fears faltering inflation Interest rates are on course to stay lower for a while after the BoE has warned that growth had decelerated and that the recovery in wages was stalling A good indicator that the BoE will not move interest rates from 0 5 per cent for most of this year was down to the minutes of the most recent rate meeting this month indicating that the policy will remain unchanged Markets are not pricing in a full quarter point rate rise until the second quarter of next year Evidence of this has been the recent collapse in the oil price to around 30 a barrel which would keep inflation low for longer It was a year today since the Swiss national bank shocked markets by abandoning the floor it had set for the previous three and a half years on the Franc s value against the Euro which saw the Franc rise as much as 41 percent against the Euro Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan sees growth accelerating to about 1 5 percent this year from just 1 percent in 2015 However the SNB president says the Franc is still overvalued The key bit of data we have coming out today is the US retail sales figures This provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month The retail sales in the United States increased by 0 2 in November from October 2015 This was the biggest gain in four months GBP EUR 1 3152 GBP USD 1 4338 GBP CHF 1 4396 GBP JPY 168 30 GBP AUD 2 0809 GBP NZD 2 2391

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    hopes were dashed at the first hurdle yesterday as fears over the health of the Chinese economy wiped nearly a trillion dollars from the global stock markets It was weak manufacturing data that snow balled a 7 drop in the Blue chip index triggering a halt to daily trading across the Chinese markets Investor s confidence was further tangled by rising tensions in the Middle East as Saudi Arabia and a few of its allies cut ties with Iran accusing the country of Dangerous Meddling The Price of oil swung by 4 until resting back at 37 a barrel All in all a struggling start for the world economy which is sure to contribute to a volatile January GBP EUR 1 3603 GBP USD 1 4712 GBP CHF 1 4772 GBP JPY 175 42 GBP AUD 2 0412 GBP NZD 2 1853 GBP CAD 2 0432 GBP ZAR 22 887 GBP NOK 13 063 GBP SEK 12 521 EUR USD 1 0808 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 08 55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Dec 6 3 09 30 GBP PMI Construction 56 0 55 3 10 00 EUR Consumer Price Index YoY Dec 0 4 0 2 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 23rd December 2015 A re cap on 2015 What does 2016 have in store 23 December 2015 Super User News 0 comment A re Cap on 2015 What does 2016 have in store 2015 has been a year of much upheaval for the Pound As the year began the UK was just recovering from the headache caused by the previous September s Scottish referendum the lead up to the ballot saw the Pound lose significant ground against the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies as investors factored in a real and present danger that the Union might be about to break up Events during the early part of 2015 saw market focus move to the UK s neighbour the Euroland with the announcement from the ECB that it was introducing a large scale bond purchase scheme aimed at steering the Euroland economy away from deflation The fall out from the announcement of a monthly 60bn worth of Quantitative Easing from the ECB for the foreseeable future sent the Pound rate hurtling northwards towards 1 45 Looking ahead with global oil prices continuing to bottom their multi year range during the past few days it would appear likely that the spectre of deflation will prove hard for the depressed Eurozone economy to shrug off into the medium term The upshot is likely to see the ECB further loosen its already ultra loose monetary policy next year Such an occurrence is forecast to send the Pound Euro exchange rate to a fresh 8 year high above the 1 5000 GBP EUR level in the middle part of 2016 Please be advised this will be the last newsletter until the 4th of January 2016 GBP EUR 1 3582 GBP USD 1 4835 GBP CHF 1 4692 GBP JPY 179 58 GBP AUD 2 0510 GBP NZD 2 1762 GBP CAD 2 0641 GBP ZAR 22 551 GBP NOK 12 961 GBP SEK 12 851 EUR USD 1 0915 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 09 30 GBP Gross Domestic Product QoQ Q3 0 5 0 5 13 30 USD Durable Goods Orders Nov 0 7 3 0 13 30 CAD Gross Domestic Product Oct 0 3 0 5 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 22nd December 2015 Mixed signals from a struggling high street 22 December 2015 Super User News 0 comment Mixed signals from a struggling high street UK Retailers are pinning their hopes of a successful final quarter of 2015 on a busy week this week according to Red Flag research a company that measures the health of UK companies Their data suggests that retailers suffering significant financial stress have increased to 24 737 from 24 251 this time last year Red Flag went on to say that these figures were particularly concerning considering the low inflation and cheap fuel prices we have seen this year Interestingly consumer confidence in the UK also rose this month according to GfK who stated that this is the first time since the index started in 1974 that confidence has stayed positive for an entire calendar year However this confidence has clearly not translated into sales according to the Confederation of British Industry s Distributive Trades Survey which disappointed Researchers were expecting a figure in the region of 31 but in fact saw only 19 in terms of those who showed growth against those businesses that showed contraction Elsewhere concern is growing in Spain as three of the four parties in with a chance of forming a coalition government following last week s general election have promised voters to convince the European Commission to ease Spain s budget limit Europe will be keen to avoid another situation like the Grexit in 2016 especially considering Spain is one of the larger members of the Eurozone GBP EUR 1 3636 GBP USD 1 4889 GBP CHF 1 4786 GBP JPY 180 25 GBP AUD 2 0547 GBP NZD 2 181 GBP CAD 2 0741 GBP ZAR 22 457 GBP NOK 13 004

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    potential for volatile markets in fairly high The Pound has strengthened slightly before the Bank of England s final Policy meeting of the year as economists expect them to keep interest rates at the record low level The currency moved against the Dollar to over 1 51 for the first time in several days Following Governor Mark Carney s comments in the November meeting Sterling affiliated markets dropped by over 1 percent as forecasts for growth and inflation were reduced solidifying expectations that there isn t likely to be an interest rate increase in the near future GBP EUR 1 3802 GBP USD 1 5150 GBP CHF 1 4925 GBP JPY 184 45 GBP AUD 2 0774 GBP NZD 2 2445 GBP CAD 2 0535 GBP ZAR 22 7001 GBP NOK 13 1245 GBP SEK 12 8033 EUR USD 1 0965 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 08 30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Press conf 12 00 GBP Monetary Policy Summary bank rates and votes 13 30 USD Unemployment Claims 266k 269k All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 9th December 2015 Stunted Growth 09 December 2015 Super User News 0 comment Stunted Growth The Sterling Pound fell further on Tuesday as UK manufacturing declined unexpectedly in October Production fell by 0 4 having seen a rise of 0 9 for the previous month of September as reported by the National office of statistics Yesterday s data release signalled a slow start to the manufacturing industry in the final quarter of 2015 further diminishing any chance of an early rate rise in the UK for 2016 The movement in the Pound reflected such losing traction against most of its major trading partners The Pound was worst performing against the single currency as the Eurozone economy grew at a modest pace of 0 3 in the third quarter having expanded by 0 4 in its previous quarter The GDP figures were released in line with expectations echoing muted optimism on concerted efforts by the ECB to induce growth early 2015 have had the desired effect as reiterated by Mario Draghi s comments in last week press conference Although not a given that the euro bloc of nations was out of the doldrums the currency certainly managed to trade well off 2015 lows against the GBP and the USD Last week the ECB announced further stimulus measures in the hope to secure growth and a rise in inflation What has proved a point of concern for the Central Bank has been a slowing in the Global economy as seen by China s recent turmoil which has threatened to undermine concerted efforts to spur activity adopted in March GBP EUR 1 3780 GBP USD 1 5045 GBP CHF 1 4940 GBP JPY 188 75 GBP AUD 2 0835 GBP NZD 2 2665 GBP CAD 2 0415 GBP ZAR 21 8850 GBP NOK 13 1650 GBP SEK 12 7650 EUR USD 1 0915 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 01 30 CNY CPI y y 1 4 1 3 06 45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3 4 3 4 10 30 GBP FPC Meeting Minutes 20 00 NZD Official Cash Rate 2 50 2 75 All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold Rates are correct as of 8 00am UK time CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown Read more 8th December 2015 Oil and Commodity Prices Signal Stormy Times Ahead 08 December 2015 Super User News 0 comment Oil and Commodity Prices Signal Stormy Times Ahead OPEC failed to reach an agreement on Friday to stem the production of oil with many analysts claiming that they are attempting to price American oil out of the market This sent ripples through stock markets across the world yesterday as the price of oil slumped to a pre crisis low along with a number of other commodities Some have drawn parallels between current market conditions and that of 1997 to 1999 where prices fell to below 10 per barrel before shooting to over 150 Oil markets and thus markets globally could be in for a turbulent couple of years if we follow a similar path Commodity prices were cited as one of the causes for China s exports falling for a fifth consecutive month which figures released yesterday showed Some analysts warn this hints at a slow down in global demand with one from Morgan Stanley Tokyo warning that some investors through to countries could now be positioning themselves in a risk off period True or false there is definitely a large amount of uncertainty going into 2016 and prudent clients will be giving thought on how to protect themselves through the tempestuous time ahead now German Industrial Production rebounded from a two month decline showing a rise in October of 0 2 on September However Germany had lost so much ground that it didn t show growth compared with October last year GBP EUR 1 3822 GBP USD 1 5022 GBP CHF 1 4991 GBP JPY 184 79 GBP AUD 2 081 GBP NZD 2 2603 GBP CAD 2 0332 GBP ZAR 21 8333 GBP NOK 12 0248 GBP SEK 12 8098 EUR USD 1 0859 All rates are indicative of interbank rates GBP EUR GBP USD EUR USD 10 00 EUR Gross Domestic Product s a YoY Q3 1 6 1 6 10

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